Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts-18 Feb 2022

Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts-18 Feb 2022

– South Africa forecast for 8% increase in macadamia output
– Chile set for major rebound in prune crop
 – TMO announces hazelnut price

Production
– Australia’s 2022 almond output is expected to increase by 13% to 140,000 tonnes.
– In California, the first almond bloom flowers are beginning to open across the state as trees wake from their winter dormancy.
– Severe winter drought is damaging the almond crop in Spain.
– South Africa’s 2022 macadamia nut crop is expected to exceed that of last year by about 8%, reaching 57,723 dry nut-in-shell tonnes versus 53,230 tonnes previously. Australia’s 2022 macadamia crop is also expected to be bigger and should reach more than 60,000 tonnes.
– Brazil’s 2021 cashew production fell by 21% y/y to 110,669 tonnes due to a combination of lower average rainfall and cut in planted area, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
– Chile’s commercial prune crop is expected to reach 70,000 tonnes, two times more than in the previous season. Average temperatures and water supply has been favourable, trees enjoying a successful flowering. However, an estimated volume of around 3,000 tonnes was damaged by heatwaves.
– Raisins South Africa has lowered its 2022 crop forecast to 65,000 tonnes marketable tonnes (72,000 farmers’ stock tonnes) from its earlier projection of 78,000 tonnes (86,000 tonnes farmers’ stock) due to adverse weather over the past month, with heavy rainfalls since the start of 2022, along with looming flooding conditions.

Demand
– Cashew industry sources commented this week that demand is going well.
– Slow demand from India and the Middle East for in-shell walnuts have been cited as the main factors behind the 47% overall decline in US walnut shipments this January.
– Australian almonds continue to attract strong demand, as demonstrated by shipment data (see Trade below). Coverage on US almonds is being thwarted by ongoing logistical problems.

Trade
– Australia’s almond shipments reached 6,160 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in December 2021, 6% more y/y. Seasonal sales (March-December) totalled 81,850 tonnes (+14% y/y).
– Total US almond shipments for the first six months of 2021-22 (August-January) declined 16.3% y/y to 1.23 billion lbs from 1.47 billion lbs previously. Domestic shipments were virtually stagnant at 391.7 million lbs from 390.1 million lbs in 1H 2020-21 but export shipments fell to 847.2 million lbs against 1.08 billion lbs earlier as logistical issues hampered sales.
– Chilean 2021 prune exports reached 49,450 tonnes (23% less than in 2020).

Price
– Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are typically ranging between $2.70-2.90 per lb fob currently, local sources report. One Vietnam supplier observed that WW320 around $2.70-2.75/lb fob from Haccp and medium Brc packers was sold well for March, April, and May shipments.
– The Turkish Grain Board has announced a price of TRY39 ($44.33) for in-shell hazelnuts (TRY78 shelled) to sell to the domestic market. With a quite stable Turkish lira in the last seven weeks, export prices are very likely to increase.

Source: (IHSmarkit)

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